Aftershock: Modelling Resilience in the United States Critical Minerals Supply Chain.
CISAC Honors Program in International Security Studies · Stanford University · 2026 · Advisor: Prof. Srabanti Chowdhury · Committee: Andrew Grotto
A causal model of how mineral markets respond to coercive supply shocks. It tracks production capacity, inventories, prices, and processing concentration across six minerals (graphite, rare earths, cobalt, lithium, nickel, uranium), and is tested against twelve historical shocks from 2006 to 2024.
The model predicts year-on-year price moves with 70% accuracy out of sample. Resilience turns on concentration at the most exposed stage of the chain, usually processing rather than mining. Graphite is the most exposed U.S. chain: under a hypothetical 95% Chinese export ban, modelled odds of recovery within three years are zero for graphite, cobalt, rare earths, and lithium. The binding constraint is not stockpile size, it is the time required to rebuild processing capacity.
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doi.org/10.25740/pv210xj5153 ↗